Donald Trump’s election has brought about a fundamental change in American foreign policy. Over the next four years, the United States focus on building and sustaining a rules-based order. Rather, leaders in Washington will prioritize near-term economic deals over long-term security arrangements. This change has the potential to transform the U.S.-Japan relationship; alliance leaders will have to adjust accordingly.

Over the last decade, Japan has helped the United States sustain a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific and around the world. Tokyo has often led Washington, for example by advancing the concept of a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” which was later adopted by the Trump administration. Japan has also stepped up when the United States has stepped back, as was the case with the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

President Trump, however, is less interested in order and rules. He and his top officials argue that these concepts unfairly constrain American power. Secretary of State Marco Rubio asserted in his confirmation hearing that, “The postwar global order is not just obsolete. It is now a weapon being used against us.” What, if anything, might replace Japan’s support for rules and order, in the minds of Trump administration policymakers?

If Tokyo wants to remain in Washington’s good graces the next few years, then Japanese leaders will have to offer near-term economic benefits to the United States. Perhaps the most appealing area for economic deals is in the energy sector. Japan needs access to reliable sources of energy at acceptable prices – in 2023, 87% of Japanese energy was imported. Meanwhile, the United States is producing more oil and gas than ever (and more than any other nation in the world).

As of 2024, Japan relied on oil for roughly 37% of its energy supply, coal for 26%, natural gas for 21%, nuclear for 5%, and renewables for a smaller but growing portion, especially of electricity production. Japan’s oil imports come primarily from the Middle East, with roughly three-quarters coming from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The bulk of Japan’s coal imports come from Australia, followed by Indonesia. Japan’s liquefied natural gas imports come from a broader set of sources, with Australia and Malaysia leading the way.

Although these energy partners are trusted by Japan, the shipping routes they rely upon are less reliable. Japan has over half a year of strategic stocks and commercial inventories of oil and petroleum products, but that might not be sufficient if a major contingency occurred in East Asia. In this case, oil imports flowing from the Middle East through the Malacca Strait and South China Sea might well be cut off. Instability in the Persian Gulf is also a risk – one potentially increased by the prospect of a decreased U.S. presence in the Middle East.

Japan is well attuned to the risks of unprotected energy supply chains. When Russia invaded Ukraine, it caused Japan to rapidly shifts its energy imports away from Russia. Moreover, the shutdown of Japan’s nuclear reactors after the 2011 earthquake is still having effects on Japan’s energy supply. Nuclear power was once a core part of Japan’s energy solution, with plans before the 2011 earthquake aiming for nuclear to produce half of Japan’s energy supply. Tokyo therefore has even more reason than most other capitals to secure more reliable and resilient energy supply chains.

To address Japan’s energy supply chain concerns and support the American energy industry, President Trump has talked openly about the possibility of energy exports to Asia. Japanese officials and business leaders expressed frustration in 2022, when the Biden administration paused approval of new liquefied natural gas projects. One plan, supported by a number of political leaders from Alaska, would have Asian allies invest in a new liquefied natural gas pipeline across the Alaskan tundra. President Trump has asserted that this arrangement has already attracted billions in commitments from a variety of Asian allies and partners.

To date it appears that there has been limited interest in this business venture from Japanese investors, due to concerns about the project’s potential cost. Other alternatives under consideration reportedly include offshore terminals that might obviate the need for a longer pipeline. If either concept wins sufficient funding from Japanese and American businesses, it could speed exports of Alaskan natural gas to Japan and demonstrate to the Trump administration that Japan is expanding economic ties with the United States.

A second option would be for Japan to reconsider its nuclear power options. Nuclear is both clean and resilient against supply chain disruptions, so it is a valuable and attractive option. Japan and the United States are leaders in reactor technology and production. Although restarting large nuclear reactors remains politically difficult, it may be possible to invest in new nuclear technologies that can be deployed more cheaply and safely, including small modular reactors.

Therefore, the American and Japanese government should look for ways to accelerate cooperation on small modular reactors. As leaders in advanced technology, it is only natural for the two countries to advance cooperation on new technologies. Due to the unique design and construction of small modular reactors, they should be more robust to natural disasters and therefore less politically sensitive than larger nuclear plants. Small modular reactors are already under consideration to supply energy to data centers in the United States and elsewhere. As Japan’s own data centers multiply and expand, both countries can benefit from these jointly embracing these technological advances.

Efforts to expand Japanese access to American liquefied natural gas and co-develop small modular reactors have the potential to simultaneously provide economic and security benefits. Doing so will be increasingly important to sustain the U.S.-Japan alliance in the years ahead. There will likely be frictions between the two countries on tariffs and other economic policies, but advancing projects that offer near-term economic benefits can help to provide additional ballast in these changing times.