1. Changes in President Trump’s Slogans

The phrases “Mass Deportation” and “Largest Deportation” were among the key slogans used by Donald Trump in his 2024 presidential campaign for re-election. In contrast, during the 2016 presidential race, Trump emphasized his immigration policy with the slogan “Build a Wall,” highlighting the need to strengthen border control along the southwestern border with Mexico. This served as an effective way to distinguish himself from other candidates. Why, then, did Trump change the slogan he used?

In fact, during the 2016 presidential election, Trump mentioned not only “building a wall” but also the “deportation of illegal immigrants.” At the time, Trump referred to a deportation program targeting undocumented immigrants from Mexico carried out under the Eisenhower administration in 1954 and 1955, using it to justify his own deportation plan (Trump, 2015). The deportation under Eisenhower’s administration, known by the derogatory name “Operation Wetback,” has been reported in research as inhumane, with even U.S. citizens being forcibly deported (Ngai, 2003). The inhumanity of “Operation Wetback” was widely recognized in the United States. Therefore, even though it was estimated that more than 11 million undocumented immigrants were living in the U.S. in 2024, accounting for 4 percent of the total population, the idea of “deporting illegal immigrants” received far less public support than “building a wall.” In a public opinion poll conducted in September 2016, 66 percent opposed the deportation of illegal immigrants, far exceeding the 30 percent who supported it (CNN/ORC, 2016). Other polls showed similar results (National Immigration Forum, 2016). Even Bill O’Reilly, a leading host on Fox News, a conservative media outlet generally favorable to Trump, criticized Trump’s deportation plan, saying, “Operation Wetback was truly brutal. Something like that would never happen today” (Politico, 2015).

Nevertheless, in the 2024 presidential election, Trump shifted his focus from the “wall” to “illegal immigrants” within the country, placing emphasis on “deportation.” He skillfully changed the central term of his campaign from an object, the wall, to people, illegal immigrants. Judging from the public opinion polls conducted during the 2016 presidential election mentioned earlier, this appeared to be a risky campaign strategy. However, as the outcome of the 2024 election clearly shows, that was not the case. Why was that? To understand this, it is necessary to examine the changes in public consciousness by focusing on the events that occurred during the eight years from 2016 to 2024.

2. The Impact of the Pandemic on International Human Mobility

Between 2016 and 2024, a major event significantly changed public consciousness. This was the global outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. As the virus spread around the world through international human mobility, countries across the globe imposed travel bans. As a result, a heightened sense of caution toward those coming from abroad emerged naturally. It has been suggested that the more people feared the threat of COVID-19, the more they demanded stricter norms, which in turn led to increasingly negative attitudes toward immigrants (Mula et al. 2022). In the United States, politicians including Trump referred to COVID-19 as the “China virus,” and their criticism of China and immigrants of Chinese origin is said to have fueled racism and xenophobia (Rogers et al. 2021).

Against the backdrop of a growing public sentiment of suspicion toward those coming from abroad, the economic damage caused by pandemic-related restrictions accelerated migration from poorer countries to wealthier ones. By the time the pandemic had subsided, some developed countries were facing a surge in undocumented immigration, further worsening public attitudes toward incoming migrants. In the United States, there was a sharp increase in the number of people crossing the southwestern border without authorization, particularly from Mexico and other parts of Latin America. The media and social media frequently reported on these unauthorized border crossings, making the situation a visible and ongoing topic of public concern.

Amid such circumstances, elections were held in many countries around the world in 2024. In these elections, political parties advocating hardline policies toward immigrants, undocumented migrants, and refugees gained prominence. The most notable example was former President Trump himself. In the 2024 presidential election, Trump’s signature policy of “deportation” gained majority support, with 57 percent of respondents expressing approval (CBS, 2024). By January, before the Trump administration officially took office, support had reached 66 percent (Axios/Ipsos, 2025). Over the course of these eight years, the United States saw a shift in public opinion, where the hardline immigration policies that had faced resistance during the previous presidential election became widely accepted. This trend resonated with the global movement toward stricter control over immigration and refugee admissions.

3. Shifting U.S. Perceptions of Undocumented Immigration Measures and Their Parallels with Japanese Attitudes from 20 Years Ago?

When I spoke about the high level of voter support for Trump’s deportation policy at a seminar in Japan, one member of the audience remarked, “Of course many Americans support deportation if the immigrants are illegal.” However, as mentioned earlier, this view was not considered “obvious” in the United States eight years ago. On the contrary, it was widely opposed at the time. This opposition stemmed from a shared historical awareness of the forced deportations of people of Mexican origin. Yet by 2024, after the COVID-19 pandemic, the conditions had changed. What had been a majority opposition to “deportation” during the 2016 presidential election had turned into an environment where it was accepted. The previously widespread aversion to “forced deportation,” once taken for granted, had shifted.

The shared assumptions that allow something to be regarded as “obvious” are gradually formed and spread within a particular group. They do not emerge instantaneously. However, certain events can trigger a shift from one version of “obvious” to another. Furthermore, what is considered “obvious” within one group may not be viewed the same way by another. This is even more pronounced between nations. As the sense of what is “obvious” in the United States has changed, what about Japan?

In Japan, perceptions toward undocumented immigrants generally align with the opinion expressed by the audience member mentioned earlier. According to a public opinion survey conducted by the Japanese government in 2004, when asked, “What do you think should be done to solve the problem of illegal workers?” 61 percent of respondents answered, “Since they are violating the law, all should be deported through procedures prescribed by law” (Cabinet Office, 2004). Although this survey was conducted 20 years ago, the number of undocumented residents in Japan had been increasing since the 1990s, and at the time, there were more than 210,000 undocumented residents in the country. This likely led to a hardened stance toward such individuals. When it comes to measures against undocumented immigrants, Japan at that time may have shared a certain degree of agreement with the views currently advocated by Trump.

Compared to the situation in Japan 20 years ago, the country today is accepting a significantly larger number of foreign workers. As of October 2024, the number of foreign workers has reached a record high of approximately 2.3 million (Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, 2024). In 2014, the figure was around 790,000, meaning it has nearly tripled over the past decade. In 2004, when the earlier public opinion survey was conducted, there were more than 200,000 undocumented residents. However, under the government’s “Plan to Halve the Number of Undocumented Residents in Five and a Half Years” implemented between 2004 and 2008, that number fell below 200,000 by 2006 and reached a low of around 60,000 in 2014. In recent years, the number has shown a gradual upward trend. Given the visible changes in Japan’s social landscape, has the country’s sense of what is “obvious” also shifted? In fact, there has been no public opinion survey conducted in recent years that includes a question directly addressing measures toward undocumented workers, like the one mentioned earlier. A somewhat related survey from 2020 asked respondents what requirements they believed were necessary for permanent residency. In that survey, 61 percent selected “no history of violating the Immigration Control and Refugee Recognition Act, such as illegal entry, overstaying, or illegal employment” (multiple responses allowed) (Cabinet Office, 2020).

4. A Common Challenge Facing Japan and the United States: The Transformation of What Is Considered “Obvious”

Japan, an island nation surrounded by the sea, and the United States, a country with land borders, differ significantly in their geographic configuration. While most countries in the world are land-connected like the United States, nations surrounded by water like Japan are relatively rare. In addition to the fact that the United States is a country of immigrants, it is not surprising that the two countries have different perceptions regarding immigrants and refugees entering their territories, given their contrasting geographical conditions. However, there is a structural similarity between them. That is, a single triggering event can dramatically shift attitudes toward those who are different, leading to a transformation of what is considered “obvious.” Furthermore, such changes are often exploited through excessive politicization. As a result, both politicians and citizens can become so heavily influenced by political ideology that they lose the ability to objectively assess the effectiveness of policy measures.

In the United States, the sense of what is “obvious” has already shifted, and support for the forced deportation of undocumented immigrants has become the majority view. This shift has been leveraged through excessive politicization, with the Trump administration carrying out deportations at an increasing pace. The scope of these measures has extended beyond undocumented immigrants to include even legal immigrants, such as permanent residents. These aggressive policies have drawn growing criticism. In the most recent public opinion poll conducted in March 2025, support for the forced deportation of undocumented immigrants had declined to 48 percent. However, among Republican supporters, the approval rate remained high at 78 percent, while among Democratic supporters, it was just 21 percent (YouGov, 2025). The partisan divide remains stark.

In Japan, the number of undocumented residents is not particularly significant at this point. However, in a recent city council election, a politician who focused on the issue of undocumented immigrants and campaigned on policies such as forced deportation was elected with the highest number of votes in that election’s history. While this “highest number” amounted to fewer than 5,000 votes, the result suggests that in certain areas, a notable portion of voters are growing increasingly dissatisfied with the presence of foreign residents, to the extent that calls for forced deportation of undocumented immigrants are gaining acceptance. This may indicate the early signs of a shift in what is considered “obvious” within that region. Given that Japan has traditionally taken a relatively strict stance toward undocumented residents, there is a risk that such sentiments could be exploited through excessive politicization by politicians. The acceptance of foreign workers under policies that may lead to the emergence of undocumented individuals without sufficient public understanding could, in the not-so-distant future, trigger a backlash not only against undocumented residents but also against foreigners more broadly. This potential development must be closely monitored.