With the inauguration of the second Trump administration, which once again places “America First” at the forefront of its agenda, there is a growing sense that global affairs have entered a period of intensified uncertainty. The era in which the United States singlehandedly upheld the international order and exercised unchallenged leadership is undergoing a significant transformation, and the very structure of the international order itself is beginning to shift dramatically.

The Crisis of Global Governance

Of particular significance is the fact that global governance, which is the response to major global agendas such as the global environment, pandemics, international terrorism, refugees, and human rights that cannot be solved by the governance of a single country alone, is now facing a major crisis.

Global governance means responding to major global agendas such as the global environment, pandemics, international terrorism, refugees, and human rights, and to movements in the international order that cannot be resolved by the governance of a single country alone, in an age when people, goods, money, and information move across borders.

The Trump administration’s flurry of presidential authorizations include abandoning climate change measures, tariffs, dismantling USAID (United States Agency for International Development), mass layoffs of government employees in the field of international cooperation, freezing funding for international exchanges, and many other non-military global governance issues. All of these are extensions of the fight against America’s domestic “enemies within,” and the intensity of their hatred of “wokeness” makes the Trump administration appear to be distancing itself from global governance.

Various issues of global governance are now being replaced by partisan rivalries in the United States. In Trump’s campaign last year, the term “illegal immigrants” was the most important keyword to solidify support among conservatives. There are “sanctuary cities” where illegal immigrants are not removed even humanely in areas and urban areas where there is a large Democratic support base, but Trump has shown signs of a thoroughgoing ban on this as well.

Moreover, as Trump himself pointed out in his speech to Congress in early March, this change has only just begun. It is likely that a great purge like China’s “Cultural Revolution” will continue in the future.

How to Turn a “Trump Risk” into a “Trump Opportunity”

However, in Japan-U.S. cooperation, this major change in the U.S., especially in the non-military field, is not always exclusively negative.

How can we turn the “Trump risk” into a “Trump opportunity”? It is up to Japan and the U.S. to further explore common issues.

For example, if, as the Trump administration has variously argued, the very mechanisms that support global governance today are already dysfunctional and the U.S. is being “preyed upon” by countries around the world, then expanding opportunities to update these complaints to fit the current situation is also possible in the context of a stronger U.S.-Japan relationship. For example, if China is abusing the WTO by not adhering to the principles of free trade, it is possible to create a forum for the US and Japan to discuss together how to correct the “injustice” and ensure the full rule of law. This is much more rational than the rough-and-tumble approach of holding the US economy hostage with tariffs, which would lead to a “Trump recession.” If Europe and other countries can be brought into the discussion, the dysfunctional reform of the WTO will move forward at a rapid pace. Beyond that, a new framework that replaces the WTO reform may also be presented.

Because the Trump administration is fundamentally transactional in its approach, some have viewed its use of tariffs as merely a bargaining tool in negotiations. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that these tariffs are also intended to attract direct investment from foreign companies. The underlying objective is to promote the development of American industries and to expand domestic employment. In the case of Japanese companies, however, direct investment in the United States has already progressed considerably. Any further sharp acceleration in this trend could lead to the hollowing out of Japan’s domestic industries. To reduce such negative impacts, it may be worth considering the creation of a framework for dialogue, similar to the former U.S.-Japan Structural Impediments Initiative, which would facilitate structured discussions through mutual consultation.

In any case, as the international community learned in the aftermath of the Great Depression, it must be reaffirmed that there are no winners in a trade war triggered by tariff hikes. It is essential for Japan and the United States to develop mechanisms to thoroughly prevent the escalation into a trade war, not only through bilateral frameworks but also by incorporating other countries into the process. If this U.S.-Japan dialogue can serve as a model for Europe and other Asian nations, it could help prevent the destabilization of the global economy caused by the Trump administration’s tariff measures.

With regard to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership), from which the United States withdrew, it should be noted that no progress was made toward rejoining even under the previous Biden administration. In light of this, the likelihood of the United States returning to the agreement at this point in time appears to be extremely low. Nevertheless, Japan should continue to maintain a structure that allows for the United States to return at any time, in order to uphold its commitment to free trade.

Various Possibilities for Cooperation

Beyond tariffs, there are various possibilities for cooperation between Japan and the United States.

For example, the Trump administration’s return to fossil fuels, embodied in the slogan “drill, baby, drill,” is scientifically problematic when considering the long-term state of the global environment. While Japan has taken steps to align with the United States in certain respects, such as through the purchase of liquefied natural gas (LNG), it must also continue to advance its own climate change mitigation efforts. One potential area for deeper cooperation between the two countries is the development of technologies that reduce the environmental impact of fossil fuel use.

From the Trump administration’s perspective, the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) serves only to benefit China, and the United States should instead focus on strengthening its fossil fuel industries, where it holds a comparative advantage. It is likely that the administration will continue to promote energy extraction and position it at the core of its economic policy, alongside tariffs and tax cuts. Even if the Trump administration abandons climate change mitigation efforts, it will be Japan’s role to maintain international cooperation on this front.

Alternative energy technologies inherently face a wide range of challenges that must be addressed from multiple perspectives. For example, in the case of solar panels, some of the mineral resources used in their production are reportedly sourced through forced labor in the Xinjiang Uyghur region of China. In order to achieve truly sustainable energy generation, it will be necessary to develop materials that are both environmentally and ethically sound.

Although partisan perspectives certainly differ, the seriousness of misinformation on social media is a shared concern for both Japan and the United States, as well as a global issue. If Japan and the United States can work together to develop mechanisms that ensure information accuracy in the age of artificial intelligence, such efforts would represent a meaningful contribution to the international community.

Cooperation is also possible in the area of human mobility. Japan has traditionally not been proactive in accepting refugees, and this stance has often drawn criticism from the international community. However, if the United States under the Trump administration moves to reduce immigration, Japan could consider measures such as accepting a portion of the individuals who would otherwise have been received by the United States. This would serve as a way to strengthen Japan’s engagement with the international community. At the same time, it is important to remember that the right to seek asylum is protected under international law. If Japan expands its acceptance of refugees, it could also provide a basis for advocating improvements in the U.S. approach to refugee and immigration policy.

In addition, Japan should consider partially covering the costs of Japan-U.S. exchange programs such as the Fulbright Program, which the United States may suspend due to budget freezes. It is important to ensure that the cultivation of the next generation of leaders and the advancement of academic and educational exchange are not hindered by such fiscal constraints.

America’s “Unprecedented Polarization and Political Stalemate”, and the Language the Administration Cannot Deny

Amid an environment of “unprecedented polarization and political stalemate”, it is important to recognize that there remains substantial public opposition within American society to the Trump administration’s efforts to dismantle policies related to global governance. The outcome of last year’s presidential election was decided by a margin of only 1.48 percentage points. Contrary to widespread misconceptions in Japan, it was by no means a “landslide victory” for Trump. The notion of a “landslide” or a “popular mandate” represents nothing more than the uncritical repetition of the Trump camp’s own claims. Furthermore, while the Republican Party holds a majority in both houses of Congress, it does so by an extremely narrow margin.

At the same time, Republican voters continue to strongly support the Trump administration’s policies. The various changes introduced under this administration are likely to be regarded as part of the “new normal”, and the international community, including Japan, must learn to adapt accordingly. One key area of adaptation is the strategic use of language. When promoting climate change measures, for example, it is important to recognize that the Trump administration tends to avoid and even reject terms such as “global warming” or “sustainable development.” These are not simply policy disagreements but issues of wording. In order to engage the administration effectively, it may be necessary to reframe the same climate-related initiatives using alternative language, such as policies for achieving long-term “energy independence”. In other words, it is essential to adopt terminology that the Trump administration itself cannot openly reject.

By choosing language that the Trump administration cannot deny, even in the face of “unprecedented polarization and political stalemate”, it is possible to signal solidarity with segments of the American public who still support the continuation of global governance policies. This approach also represents a forward-looking strategy that anticipates potential shifts in U.S. politics and society in the lead-up to the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential and congressional elections.

Japan’s Role

The second Trump administration is likely to bring about even greater changes. The era in which the United States sought to assert leadership unilaterally is undergoing a major shift, and the country is increasingly distancing itself from global governance. The transformation of the United States, once the central actor in sustaining the international order, is becoming more pronounced, and it is gradually relinquishing the very international system it helped to create.

Within this broader trend, Japan is expected to play a vital role in keeping the United States engaged with the international community. In this sense, Japan’s role has become all the more significant. European countries, which share common values with Japan, have high expectations for Japanese leadership and may choose to coordinate first with Japan not only on issues related to the United States but also in their approach to China.

Although the return of Trump to power brings with it a number of risks, it may also present opportunities for Japan to assume greater leadership on the global stage. From this perspective, it is important to reframe our thinking and move toward a new era in the Japan-U.S. relationship.

When it comes to non-military areas of cooperation between Japan and the United States, it is essential to first examine closely how these dynamics may evolve in the coming years.

(This is an English translation of a commentary written by MAESHIMA Kazuhiro, Distinguished Research Fellow, JFIR/ Professor, Sophia University, which originally appeared on the JFIR website in Japanese on March 23, 2025.)