| 1. Summary of Prof. Yamazawa Ippei's Keynote
Presentation |
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| (1) |
The pillar toward the establishment
of East Asian regional integration is the market integration through
an intense intra-regional trade and investment that preceded other
arenas of activity. |
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| (2) |
The opportunity and inclination
for East Asian regional integration are still on the rise after
the WTO Doha meeting. This represents a mutually enhancing process
of Asian dynamism and the benefits of competitive liberalization. |
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| (3) |
The relationship between Japan
and ASEAN and that between China and the regional association
are different in characteristics. Japan, in principle, has built
bilateral relationships with respective ASEAN nations, but from
now on, Japan would shift the focus of its relationship to an
integrated ASEAN, which in turn would produce a variety of business
opportunities and induce more foreign investment in ASEAN. In
order for this to materialize, tariff barriers within ASEAN should
be abolished, and further, it is necessary to minimize distribution
cost within the region. |
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| (4) |
An FTA between Japan and Korea
has a beneficial aspects: increased productivity and lower cost
would give rise to globally-competitive Japanese and Korean corporations.
At the same time, there are some obstacles, such as: 1) it is
highly likely that Japanese companies would overwhelm their Korean
counterparts; and, 2) Korean distrust of Japan is strong. |
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| (5) |
The size of a combined Sino-Japanese-Korean
economy is large, making economic justification for a trilateral
FTA convincing, but currently such an agreement is seen mostly
in a negative sense, due to the present differences of economic
systems and the Chinese and Korean distrust of Japan. |
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| (6) |
A more realistic approach, on
the other hand, would be a Japanese FTA with the ASEAN+3. ASEAN
has the role of a hub that connects Japan and China. South Korea
can play the role of a hub between Japan and China, too, as a
business hub of Northeastern Asia. Progress with such an approach
may be slow, but we need to start with what we can, in parallel
to other FTAs, by being careful to avoid the trade diversion effects |
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| (7) |
An East Asian Economic System
would mean the sharing of a single economic system. As economies
and corporations are aiming for globalization, efficiency would
be prioritized, making the Anglo-American standard, in which an
economic liberalism centered on private companies is a dominant
theme, a model. East Asia, however, contains within it a variety
of systems and organizations, and thus there is no choice but
to coexist by maintaining those differences. It follows that the
East Asian Economic System should possess a maximum flexibility
in allowing the coexistence of different systems and organizations |
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| 2. Comments of Discussants |
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| (1) Comments by Prof. Rhyu Sang-Young |
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East
Asia cannot be integrated just by purely economic approaches.
As mutual economic dependency increases, a higher level of regional
integration in which homogeneity and sameness can be seen culturally
and socially should be achieved. In order to promote regional
integration in East Asia in the near future, it is necessary to:
1) secure economic interest of each nation; 2) secure a regional
leader; and 3) adopt an open governance system. |
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| (2) Comments by Mr. Xu Changwen |
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In
order to construct an East Asian Community, Japan, China, and
South Korea should take leadership roles, as in the case of France
and Germany in the European Union, and the United States and Canada
in the NAFTA. A Sino-Japanese-Korean FTA should be prioritized
in this way; however, there is the agricultural issue between
China and Japan, and Japanese distrust of China. But I do not
think Japan needs to worry, as available land area in China is
small, and Japanese technological development capabilities are
high. |
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| (3) Comments by Prof. Ajanant Juanjai |
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(1) |
Japan, although
it is an economic superpower, had an ambivalent attitude toward
the ASEAN as a group. Japan had mainly approached the ASEAN on
a bilateral, nation-to-nation level, but it finally started to
perceive ASEAN as an integral market, as the AFTA and ASEAN free
trade agreement were launched.
China is trying to expand
its FTA with Thailand from specific items to overall trade. Furthermore,
China has the political will to develop such an FTA into a multilateral
one, to have a comprehensive relationship with the enlarged ASEAN.
South Korea had entered FTA
negotiations with Thailand, Chile, and Japan, but has ceased such
talks due to the lack of tangible benefits. However, in the long-run,
FTAs would benefit South Korea, and I hope that the nation would
resume the FTA talks.
A Sino-Japanese-Korean FTA
faces a variety of tests, including the issue of differences in
interpretations of history. Between China and Japan, especially,
it would be difficult for Japan to shift its main industries to
China, and China, too, would feel reluctant to accept the industries
that are declining in Japan. |
| (2) |
Thailand has entered FTA negotiations
with India and China, and is expected to launch FTA talks with
Australia next year. the United States has expressed interest
in starting similar negotiations with The Thai government, but
since the basis of such talks would be the AEI (American Enterprise
Initiative), the U.S. government desires to apply the right to
sue the Thai government and some NAFTA-inspired articles. Under
such circumstances, the talks are likely to hit difficulties. |
| (3) |
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi has announced that agricultural items may be included
in the Thai-Japanese FTA negotiations, but the Thai side has become
cautious about the so-called sensitive items. |
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| 3. Free discussions by the Floor |
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|
(1) |
How about holding regular Sino-Japanese-Korean
summit in order to realize the successful establishment of the
East Asian Community to a success? It would be ideal if mutual
visits promotes mutual understanding, and in turn pursuit of common
interests. |
| (2) |
it would be possible to take optimistic
views about the currency and financial issues compared to trade,
for the following three reasons: 1) Within the ASEAN+3 framework,
basic infrastructure for currency and finances would be further
developed; 2) the high Asian savings rate would enable investment
within the region; and 3) a more profitable asset investment would
be possible in regards to fluidity. |
| (3) |
Why has the degree of ASEAN's trade connections
with other Asian nations decreased, except for China, in 2000
compared to 1990? It would mean a progression of the ASEAN's globalized
economic integration. |
| (4) |
Is it accurate to say that the panelists'
definition of East Asia is dualistic, one being Northeast Asia
that shares Confucius and Chinese-character cultures, and the
other being the region that contains both Confucius and Buddhist-inspired
Southeast Asian cultures? |
| (5) |
The impetus for the European integration
has been the strengths of political wills among member nations.
On the other hand, is it not be the lack of Japanese leadership
that has produced the slow progress of intra-Asian cooperation
and integration? Didn't the present momentum for such cooperation
and integration derive largely from the efforts of ASEAN and South
Korea? It would be necessary for Japan to have a strong political
will and take leadership with China. |
| (6) |
Would it be problematic for Thailand and
Singapore to take independent leaderships within the ASEAN. |
| (7) |
What is the mechanism of a potential Sino-ASEAN
FTA? Is it the case that the fragile ASEAN Secretariat is in charge
of negotiations with China? Or is it that individual member nations
are in talks with China under the table? |
| (8) |
Would it be productive for elite members
of Japanese society to launch joint research with Chinese and
South Korean elites who will carry the future of those nations? |
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| 4. Panelists' Responses to the Questions and
Comments |
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| (1) Responses by Prof. Kinoshita Toshihiko |
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(1) |
Trade liberalization between two nations
would mean increased benefits for both nations, but domestically,
winners and losers would inevitably emerge. Therefore, some kind
of adjustment is necessary to deal with that kind of situation. |
| (2) |
Things would not move in Sino-Japanese negotiations
because of Japanese farmers, who comprise only two percent of
the voter population, while in China, the interests of Chinese
farmers, who make up seventy percent of the population, would
be abandoned under the name of Chinese national interest. We must
consider necessary adjustment for this circumstance. |
| (3) |
Mutual understanding in the Japanese-Korean
relationship is deepening, since both nations possess democratic
values and share many issues, such as labor, distrust against
politicians, opposition to the widening gap between the rich and
the poor, and populism in the media. Therefore, I am optimistic
about the Japanese-Korean FTA negotiations. |
| (4) |
It would be beneficial for the ASEAN member
nations to promote free trade agreement negotiations on the consensus
base, but its FTAs would lose strength if not all members put
their efforts together? In order to promote parallel cooperation,
we need to share a framework of East Asian citizens, and thereby
increase intra-region investment. |
| (5) |
Intra-regional currency cooperation is going
well, and we should keep it that way. |
| (6) |
It would be important for Japan to successfully
implement an educational reform in order to solve the difficult
problem it faces. |
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| (2) Responses by Dr. Kwan C. H. |
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(1) |
Political opposition for FTA
would be minimum if the perceived ease of negotiations is considered
in choosing partner nations, but at the same time, the economic
benefits would be also minimal. Sometimes top-down and "big-bang"
approaches are necessary. Therefore, why not try to give priority
to the conclusion of a Sino-Japanese FTA? Since the Sino-Japanese
relationship is largely mutually supplementing, the conclusion
of such an FTA would leave no choice for smaller nations but to
join such agreements with large economic benefits. |
| (2) |
I do not agree with the argument
that the different interpretations of history are preventing regional
integration. A transcendence of the history, precisely because
unfortunate history exists, as in the case of Franco-German relationship,
is now being called for. |
| (3) |
We should take a note that the
APEC's Bogor Declaration stipulated that a single free trade sphere
would be achieved by 2010 among advanced Asia-Pacific nations,
and by 2020 among all APEC nations, including developing ones. |
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| (3) Responses by Prof. Rhyu Sang-Young |
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(1) |
Japan would not be expected to play a major
role in the region unless its economic reform makes a progress. |
| (2) |
South Korea can play the role of mediator
for Japan and China, but before assuming that role, South Korea
needs to accomplish the following two points: 1) domestic reforms;
and 2) the ability to view things with international perspectives
rather than with narrow, nationalistic ones |
| (3) |
This kind of informal forum is very important,
for such a meeting can play the role of building common recognitions
and shared visions. |
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| (4) Responses by Mr. Xu Changwen |
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(1) |
Chinese decision-makers would first listen
to opinions of experts before making decisions. China did not
start to suddenly say that it wants an FTA with the ASEAN. In
fact, China and ASEAN member nations took about half a year to
conduct a joint study, and then agreed that an FTA should be concluded
within ten years. |
| (2) |
An FTA is a system that analyzes the benefits
and drawbacks of such an agreement for the partner nation, and
that seeks to benefit both nations. China and ASEAN are expected
to continue joint research for more than ten years. |
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| (5) Responses by Prof. Ajanant Juanjai |
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(1) |
The EU was originally formed for political
purposes, because economic terms could not be fulfilled. |
| (2) |
It is not the case that Japan has not exercised
its leadership, but that Japanese leaders had given regional integration
a low priority. |
| (3) |
I do not intend to support FTAs. Thailand
accepts multilateral trade negotiations because it is a small
nation. It would be easier to conclude an FTA between two small
nations, but there are many issues to be solved before an FTA
is concluded between small and large nations. Singapore is a duty-free
nation, has a small population, and its future is dependent upon
trade. But for Thailand, FTA has its benefits and drawbacks. |
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| (6) Responses by Prof. Yamazawa Ippei |
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(1) |
A Sino-Japanese-Korean FTA would be the best
option for East Asian regionalism, but in reality, such an agreement
would be very difficult to achieve. Therefore we must think about
other options, too. |
| (2) |
In order to avoid trade diversion effects
in case certain parts of FTAs in East Asia hastily implemented,
we need to promote other arrangements as well. FTAs are good in
themselves, but we need to make efforts to expand them in a global
liberalization. |
| (3) |
Financial cooperation with respect to exchange
rate has not made a progress. Should the valuation issue of the
Chinese Yuan cause a large shock, a currency crisis may occur.
The reality is that currency cooperation has not progressed on
that front, either. |
| (4) |
The ASEAN+3 process has gained a wide range
of support. In the process, it would be an appropriate that the
member nations start what they can, but discussions are necessary
for processes for what is being left out. |
| (5) |
Economic benefits are prerequisites, but
political processes are also necessary. It is not that Japan lacks
leadership, but that it has a different style in leadership. Leadership
is necessary, but the Japanese style is characterized by "leadership
from behind," and takes into deep consideration the issues
of CLMV, for example. We need to understand and accept this style. |
| (6) |
We need to consider the linkage between domestic
reform and regional cooperation. |