Greetings,
"The Japan Forum on International Relations (JFIR) E-Letter" is delivered electronically bimonthly, free of charge, to readers in the world interested in Japanese thinking on Japan's foreign policy and other related international affairs by the Japan Forum on International Relations (JFIR), private, non-profit, independent and non-partisan foreign policy think tank in Japan.
It will provide the global audience with our news on "JFIR Commentary " and "JFIR Updates."
If you wish to unsubscribe, please enter your email address in the "unsubscribe" box at the following link:
http://www.jfir.or.jp/e/e-letter/unsubscribe.html
ITO Kenichi
President, JFIR
"JFIR Commentary"
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
"JFIR Commentary" presents views of members of JFIR on Japan's foreign policy and other related international affairs. The view expressed herein is the author's own and should not be attributed to JFIR.
----------------- - - - -----------------
Japan-U.S. Alliance Should Not be Turned Adrift
By YANO Yoshiaki
retired Senior Officer of Self Defense Forces of Japan
The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) came into office with overwhelming support of the Japanese people. The DPJ administration has so far been making such statements and included them in their political manifesto as would undermine a number of agreements between Japan and the U.S. which have formed the foundation of the Japan-U.S. alliance. The U.S. is for sure keeping a close eye on how the DPJ administration would direct its foreign and security policy. The Japan-U.S. alliance is now standing at a critical crossroads.
The Obama administration is planning to spend a huge amount of public funds on countermeasures to the financial crisis as well as to push through major reforms in domestic affairs including the health care system. These policies would lead to the mid- and long-term aggravation of the governmental fiscal condition and also to future tax hikes. Considering such severe fiscal conditions, the Obama administration has decided to reduce U.S. national defense spending. As it intends to allocate its defense budget mainly to the development of military capability to counter the immediate threats as in the war on terrorism, while reducing high-tech weapons to prepare for mid-and-long term threats, the global power projection capabilities of the U.S. forces will be impaired and the U.S. military transformation will also be accelerated. Also, as for the war on terrorism now in progress, it is increasingly likely that the U.S. forces will not only withdraw from Iraq as already planned, but also withdraw from Afghanistan.
Under such circumstances, the U.S. might welcome proposals made by DPJ that it will end Japan's refueling mission in the Indian Ocean and instead provides financial assistance in reconstruction of Afghanistan and strengthen civilian support in reconstruction assistance of Iraq. Also, the relocation issue of the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma could possibly be settled by an agreement between Japan and the U.S. over such a drastic measure as an immediate and complete pullout of the Station to their home country. Even the Japan-U.S. Status-of-Forces Agreement could be subject to a major review in the international context, just as the U.S. forces stationed in Germany and South Korea were substantially reduced after the end of the Cold War.
From this standpoint, part of the DPJ policies might be accepted by the Obama administration, and then the Japan-U.S. relations would be directed to a new path. However, if this new path leads to the hollowing-out of the Japan-U.S. alliance, there is something quite gloomy in the future.
If the U.S. forces should gradually withdraw from Japan's soil to the Continental U.S. and adopt above policies, the Japan-U.S. relations would be increasingly estranged especially on the security and diplomatic front. The U.S. forces in Japan, especially its ground forces, i.e. the Marine Corps in Okinawa, are essential to secure a guarantee of provision of contingency support in the event of military attacks from outside Japan. Therefore, if they would accelerate withdrawal from Japan, the credibility of the contingency support of the U.S. will accordingly decline. Moreover, such policies advocated by Foreign Minister OKADA Katsuya as realization of "North-East Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone" and investigation into Japan's secret agreement with the U.S. on moving U.S. nuclear weapons through Japanese territory would risk undermining unilaterally the efficacy of extended nuclear deterrence provided by the U.S., unless denuclearization of North Korea has been realized.
As, in recent years, there has been discord between the U.S. and China as exemplified in the naval standoff in the South China Sea, the U.S. is on high alert for China's military buildup, saying that it has already exceeded the scope of "liberating" Taiwan, and reached such an extent as to be able to seek regional hegemony. DPJ, on the other hand, intends to build closer relations with other Asian countries including China and Korea, and aims to create an "East Asian community". However, the fact remains that China assumes one-party dictatorship, a regime totally different from ours, and has bilateral concerns with Japan such as issues of territorial rights over the Senkaku Islands or gas field development in the East China Sea. Thus, there is a limit to intimacy between the two countries.
If those DPJ policies should be misdirected, there is a risk of the Japan-U.S. alliance being hollowed out both in terms of provision of extended nuclear deterrence, in terms of provision of contingency support by means of conventional weapons in the event of military attacks from outside Japan. Besides, if Japan should adopt pro-China policy while making light of the U.S., the U.S. would for sure deepen a sense of mistrust toward Japan. The Obama administration must be realistic enough to press Japan to pay its fair share of the cost if Japan wishes to be an ally of the U.S. on an equal footing. Otherwise, it would not hesitate to attenuate its bilateral ties with Japan as allies. DPJ administration, however, fails to show its willingness to take steps further beyond provision of civilian and financial assistance and to increase its own share of the defense responsibilities by way of dispatching the Self Defense Forces of Japan or increasing its defense spending. Rather, DPJ is likely to curtail further its defense spending for the cause of cutting waste, thereby generating financial resources to implement the party's feature policies including "Child Care Allowance."
Should it be the case, the Japan-U.S. relations would soon fall into an alliance of a nominal and insubstantial nature, and the peace and stability of East Asia would even be impaired. The hollowing-out of the Japan-U.S. alliance should pose a fundamental question to Japan on how to secure its national security for the foreseeable future, thereby turning adrift the national fundamentals of Japan. So long as it is in power, the DPJ administration should bear in mind the grave nature of this fact.
(This is the English traslation of an article which originally appeared on the BBS "Hyakka-Seiho" of JFIR on 25 September, 2009, and was posted on "JFIR Commentary" on 30 November, 2009)
----------------- - - - -----------------
For more views and opinions in the backnumber of "JFIR Commentary," the latest of which are as follows, please refer to:
http://www.jfir.or.jp/e/commentary/backnumber.htm
No.53 "Japan's Lonely Battle for the Greenhouse Gas Reduction May Yield Reverse Effects"
by TAMAKI Hiroshi, Professor
(30 September 2009)
No.52 "Three Principles on Arms Exports Need to be Revised"
by TAKAMINE Koushu, Fellow, The Okazaki Institute
(31 July 2009)
No.51 Japan Should Involve NGOs in its ODA Programs
by HIRONAKA Wakako, Member of the House of Councilors (Democratic Party of Japan)
(29 May 2009)
No.50 Before Talking about Energy Deal with Russia
by SASAKI Akira
(11 May 2009)
No.49 What was Wrong with "War on Terror"?
by ITO Kenichi, President of The Japan Forum on International Relations
(7 March 2009)
No.48 "Ostracism" Brings Japan to Ruin
by SUGIURA Masaaki, Political Commentator
(25 February 2009)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
"JFIR Updates"
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
"JFIR Updates" introduces to you latest events, announcements and/or publications of JFIR.
Events
------------- - - - -------------
The 2nd Meeting of the Policy Council on "Prospects and Challenges for the Acceptance of Foreigners to Japan" Held
The 2nd meeting of the JFIR Policy Council on "Prospects and Challenges for the Acceptance of Foreigners to Japan" was held on 27 October 2009. 25 members of Policy Council and 3 Task Force members headed by Prof. IGUCHI Yasushi attended the meeting. Mr. TSURUNEN Marutei, Member of the House of Councilors (Democratic Party of Japan), presented his views as follows.
It is important to introduce a view that foreigners in Japan are by themselves a necessary component of the Japanese society. If foreigners in Japan and the Japanese would come to co-exist in harmony, though not an easy task as it is, the Japanese and the Japanese society should perhaps become more opened to the outside world. When it comes to systematizing acceptance of foreigners to Japan, we should come up with a migration model which is in the interests of both the sending and recipient countries as well as migrants themselves, instead of adopting the "rotation system" which denies unskilled foreign laborers freedom of movement. Although the current basic principle of the Japanese Government on the acceptance of foreign laborers is to "be cautious about letting in unskilled laborers," it should consider another approach of "letting in unskilled laborers also, and having them acquire professional qualifications in Japan." While it is basically important to abolish discriminations against foreigners in Japan and to grant them the same legal standings as the Japanese, it is necessary to establish a new law on employment and work of foreigners. Besides, employment of foreigners should be so conditioned that they are qualified for social and employment insurances. As for expansion of the political rights of foreigners in Japan, it is important to let them make their own choices whether or not to be naturalized in order to obtain suffrage. Although some people assert that, as the number of foreigners increases, the crime rate should accordingly rise, the actual number of crimes committed by foreigners is on the decline, and even roughly matches those committed by the Japanese.
In response to the above presentation of Mr. TSURUNEN, members of the Policy Council exchanged their views actively.
=====================================================================
Please send your comments and/or questions to:
info@jfir.or.jp
To customize your subscription, or unsubscribe, please refer to:
http://www.jfir.or.jp/e/e-letter/e-letter.htm
Officer in Charge: TAKAHATA Yohei
The Japan Forum on International Relations, Inc.
2-17-12-1301, Akasaka, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 107-0052
JAPAN
Tel: +81-3-3584-2190
Fax: +81-3-3589-5120