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ITO Kenichi
President, JFIR
"JFIR Commentary"
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"JFIR Commentary" presents views of members of JFIR on Japan's foreign policy and other related international affairs. The view expressed herein is the author's own and should not be attributed to JFIR.
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Japan's Lonely Battle for the Greenhouse Gas Reduction May Yield Reverse Effects
By TAMAKI Hiroshi
Professor
Amid the growing concern over the global warming, there is an urgent need for the entire world to advance a large scale reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Addressing this issue by setting a reduction goal of 50 percent or even more to be attained by 2050 is not only the responsibility of the current generation for the future generation, but also the requisite task to mitigate the damages of the global warming, which is steadily expanding during the lifetime of the current generation. However, it is quite another question whether it is advisable for Japan to announce to the world her intention to set a concrete, high reduction target, and make it an unconditional pledge to the international community.
"Every country should reduce the emission, so why not Japan takes the lead?" This is a lofty but naive assertion. If Japan should make an international pledge of setting a high mid-term target by 2020 and thereby legally obliged under a "protocol" to fulfill an exceptionally substantively high level duty of reduction, it would be detrimental not only to the Japanese economy, but also to enhancing the greenhouse gas reduction on a global scale. Because, if Japan set high level target of total national emissions as being discussed, the marginal abatement cost for Japan to take measures in this field would be so huge that the share (and its absolute amount) of the industries with high carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions would be more likely to be transferred to countries with less efficiency in reduction of greenhouse gases. It is required for Japan to continue to develop energy-saving technologies, with which to pursue economic and industrial activities, and it is also necessary for reducing efficiently the world's greenhouse gas emission.
And if Japan tries to achieve greenhouse gas reduction on a major scale, the estimated expenditure for it would be enormous (JPY190 trillion, according to estimates by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan). It must be stupendously difficult for Japan to bear such a severe financial burden, which could not possibly be covered by the economic development in the environmental field. If present trend of emissions of the world continues, Japan's share of global GHGs emissions would go down to 3% and then to 2%, while the greenhouse gas emission of emerging countries will remain sky-rocketing. Therefore, even though Japan desperately strives to reduce the emission of GHGs, by losing the share of relatively energy-efficient productions, the total effect of the efforts against global warming in the world will be quite limited.
Unless all the major emitter countries in the world including, those not currently obliged to reduce emissions, are obliged such as US, and several major emitting developing countries (emerging countries), in a considerably equal way, to enhance the reduction, Japan's lonely battle for it, by setting an exceptionally high goal for reduction by herself, would not do good for the world eventually. Of course, it is quite rigit that Japan should make its utmost efforts to take measures against global warming. But this does not mean that the higher target of Japan is the better way to reduce total emission of the world. What we need is a calm, thoughtful and non-emotional discussion.
(This is the English traslation of an article which originally appeared on the BBS "Hyakka-Seiho" of JFIR on 28 August, 2009, and was posted on "JFIR Commentary" on 30 September, 2009)
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For more views and opinions in the backnumber of "JFIR Commentary," the latest of which are as follows, please refer to:
http://www.jfir.or.jp/e/commentary/backnumber.htm
No.52 "Three Principles on Arms Exports Need to be Revised"
by TAKAMINE Koushu, Fellow, The Okazaki Institute
(31 July 2009)
No.51 Japan Should Involve NGOs in its ODA Programs
by HIRONAKA Wakako, Member of the House of Councilors (Democratic Party of Japan)
(29 May 2009)
No.50 Before Talking about Energy Deal with Russia
by SASAKI Akira
(11 May 2009)
No.49 What was Wrong with "War on Terror"?
by ITO Kenichi, President of The Japan Forum on International Relations
(7 March 2009)
No.48 "Ostracism" Brings Japan to Ruin
by SUGIURA Masaaki, Political Commentator
(25 February 2009)
No.47 Brave a Depression and Build a New Japanomics
by TSUNODA Katsuhiko, former Ambassador of Japan to Uruguay
(23 January 2009)
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"JFIR Updates"
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"JFIR Updates" introduces to you latest events, announcements and/or publications of JFIR.
Events
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The 52nd Meeting of "Diplomatic Roundtable" on "The Economic-Security Nexus and East Asian Regionalism"Held
JFIR and its two sister organizations, the Global Forum of Japan and the Council on East Asian Community, taking advantage of an occasion of a visit to Japan of a prominent person on international and other affairs, monthly organize a "Diplomatic Roundtable" meeting, which is an informal gathering of members of the three organizations for a frank exchange of views and opinions with the visiting guest. The 52nd "Diplomatic Roundtable" was held on 27 August 2009 on the topic of "The Economic-Security Nexus and East Asian Regionalism". An outline of the presentation of Thomas J. PEMPEL, Professor of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley, was as follows.
The institutional architecture of East Asian Regionalism is multi-layered and complex, indicating functions of "institutional Darwinism,"in which good institutions survive and bad institutions ebb away. Meanwhile, a marked imbalance could be observed between institutionally cohesive ties in the field of economics, deepened through responses to external shocks, and much less cohesive ties in the field of security, where there are no common external enemies for the region and only endogenous threats abound. Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98 triggered the rise of regionalism in East Asia, and paved the way for further formalizing economic integration in the region. Such intra-governmental frameworks for regional cooperation as ASEAN Plus Three, East Asia Summit and Chaing Mai Initiative, started all together, because, within the region, there was a shared strong need of a mechanism with which to buffer against similar financial crises in the future coming from outside the region. Trends in the field of security, on the other hand, take on an aspect of "cockpit for great powers." Thus, there is the nexus between the security conditions which are "ripe for rivalry," and economic conditions which are "ripe for cooperation," in which progress in one area spills over to the other either for the worse or for the better. In this connection, we should attach importance to several trilateral frameworks such as Japan-China-Korea, Japan-US-China, or Japan-US-Australia. Japan-China-Korea Summit meeting, in particular, was epoch-making. We should enhance cooperative ties within this framework both in economics and in security. As far as US is concerned, she is expected to return to Asia under President Obama, who shifted US foreign policy from a unilateral to a multilateral approach. Given that many issues in East Asia could not be solved without US commitment, it is vitally important for the countries in the region to seek common interests with US and jointly strive to construct a regional order in East Asia.
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